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FRANCE’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


Dismay abounds in France after recent national and European elections.

A tough road lies ahead, but there is great promise. France is in a pickle, but there is potential for good. 

Recent elections have seen a growing number of citizens voting for extremist candidates across the political spectrum. Although there is room for concern, the clamor of hostile rhetoric is drowning out all of the good that's going on in France. 

Since a lot of the new support for unconventional parties and candidates is coming from citizens with genuine economic concerns, and since economics is an area in which I have some experience, I would like to highlight a few positive trends that demonstrate that France is in a better position than most think. However, how the country's politicians act on these trends will make all the difference. 

RECENT LOWS IN UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment was reported at 7.5% in May. This is after dropping to as low as 7.1% at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, which was the lowest it has been in 40 years. 

Furthermore, there has been a steady decline in the rate of unemployment spanning two presidencies. The unemployment rate has decreased by 2.7 points over the past ten years. The government's goal is to get unemployment to 5% by 2027. This will be a challenge, but a few factors could help. 

THE ROLE OF STARTUPS

It would be disingenuous to call France a "Startup Nation," as President Macron predicted ahead of his election in 2017. Nonetheless, the role of startups cannot be underplayed. 

First, defining a startup is a bit tricky. It was once defined as a scalable business created to address a specific problem with a new product. It is most often associated with tech because most new products post the Industrial Age are digital. Today, it is not uncommon to hear "startup" used for any new business. 

In light of the above, France has shown great promise in starting new businesses and bringing new, innovative products to the international market.  Much of this is thanks to the next positive trend: direct investment. 

FRANCE: A SAFE BET

My motivation for this week's newsletter came from a LinkedIn post today from the Financial Times saying "French markets have rallied as investors predict a hung parliament."  

France has seen record investment by other countries and international businesses. Despite a focus on the European Union, France's number one investor is the United States, with the UK coming in second. In fact, the number of jobs produced from US investment is more than that of the UK and the third highest investor, Germany, combined. In addition, France remains the most attractive country for industrial investment in Europe.

Working backward from this newsletter's three topics, investments lead to new businesses that directly impact employment levels. On paper, there has never been a better time to start a business in France. This is something worth highlighting and celebrating. 

AFTERWORD

None of the above negates the real economic problems people face in France today. Rather, it can inform those who hope for a better tomorrow, irrespective of their current situation.

Changing jobs is difficult. Starting a business is even more difficult. In the end, we can choose to be negative about it, or positive. The choice is ours.

Vive la France !